Navin Flourine (BSE code - 532504)

How do you think does the profits of a company increase.

a) By increasing sales and at the same time maintaining the expenditure % to sales

b) If sales cant increase then by reducing cost so that the expenditire % to sales decreases

I guess conventional wisdom says that largely these are the only 2 ways of increasing the bottom line. And chances are that both these modes will entail some capex as well

Let me discuss today one more way of profit generation. Its called carbon credits. Am sure a lot of you already know about it but for the benefit of those who do not let me first explain this.

Now we all know that there is a lot of talk globally about global warming and about the need to do something about it. After a series of discussions amongst member nations under the UN an agreement as to what needs to be done was formulated under what is known now as the Kyoto protocol. Without getting into too much detail the following were decided upon

a) The developed nations through individual entities need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (from Carbon dioxide) by a certain %age (since they were thought to be the ones who had industrialised and hence contributed the most to global warming)

b) The developing nations through individual entities were urged to curb their emissions by investing in energy efficient processes which could lead to lower emissions of these gases.

Simply put , there is a demand side which is the developing countries and there is a supply side which is the developed world.

India falls under the category of developing country.Hence individual companies in India have a lot of opportunity in curbing their emissions by shifting to better processes and at the same time get them carbon credits as well. So much so for the supply side of the equation. These reductions as certified by UNFCCC are called Certified emission rights (CER) also commonly known as carbon credits and can be sold to entities in the developing world so as to help them attain there targets of reducing emissions.

On the other hand the entities in developing countries are required to reduce their emissions or buy CERs from the market so that the emission reduction targets are achieved. This is where the fun is. The entities in developed world are already much more efficient than the ones in the developing world when it comes to emissions. And to top it they are being asked to reduce their emissions even further. This is where CERs have a huge market. 

This is what wikipedia has to say about the emissions market.

For trading purposes, one allowance or CER is considered equivalent to one metric ton of CO₂ emissions. These allowances can be sold privately or in the international market at the prevailing market price. These trade and settle internationally and hence allow allowances to be transferred between countries. Each international transfer is validated by the UNFCCC. Each transfer of ownership within the European Union is additionally validated by the European Commission.

Climate exchanges have been established to provide a spot market in allowances, as well as futures and options market to help discover a market price and maintain liquidity. Carbon prices are normally quoted in Euros per tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent (CO₂e). Other greenhouse gasses can also be traded, but are quoted as standard multiples of carbon dioxide with respect to their global warming potential. These features reduce the quota's financial impact on business, while ensuring that the quotas are met at a national and international level.

Currently there are five exchanges trading in carbon allowances: the Chicago Climate Exchange, European Climate Exchange, Nord Pool, PowerNext and the European Energy Exchange. Recently, NordPool listed a contract to trade offsets generated by a CDM carbon project called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Many companies now engage in emissions abatement, offsetting, and sequestration programs to generate credits that can be sold on one of the exchanges.

^{This full article can be accesses through this link (wikipedia)}

^{Infact Barclays capital predicts that this is a market estimated to be worth about 30 billion euros in 2007. and could grow upto $1 trillion in a decade. (article link)}

The next question that would come to your mind now is why is it that carbon credits are not being talked about with as much fervour as I think they should. To my mind there seems to be 2 reasons for the same.

a) The Kyoto protocol talks about the emissions reduction mechanism till 2012 only. And there is no clarity on what would happen after that. Hence people are sceptic about what will happen to the carbon credits post 2012.

b) In the largest market EU the emission reduction targets set are not very strict as of now.

But all this is set to change. And the positive developments are on the anvil. So what are they

a) There is talk about what happens to the emissions reduction thing post 2012. This was discussed in Copenhagen in December 2009. Unfortunately nothing concrete could be agreed upon. But there is hope that by the end of 2010 or the beginning of 2011 some concrete proposals should be formalised.

b) Prior to Copenhagen the US had not agreed to reduce emissions like the countries in the EU. This was quite ironical as the US is the world's largest emitter of green house gases. However it seems to have changed its mind and has agreed to come on board and reduce its emission levels. 

c) The EU is in the process of formalising stricter norms for emissions reduction post 2012. Failing which the corporates will have to pay a penalty. This penalty amount is likely to range from about 40 euros to 100 euros.

The current price of CER is about 13 euros per CER. (link)

The next question you might have is which are the companies in India which are likely to benefit from carbon credits. We have a whole host of them and a simple search on google should give you their names and hence I am not going to list all of them. 

I would only like to mention the company that I personally like. Its called Navin Flourine. It is a well managed company belonging to the Arvind Mafatlal group and it deals in flourochemicals and refrigerants. There are three segments to its business – speciality fluorochemicals, bulk fluoride and refrigerants. The speciality fluorochemicals are used in making agrochemicals, antibiotics for the pharmaceutical industry, pigment for the petrochemical industry and toothpaste for the personal-care industry. Bulk fluoride is used by aluminium companies. Two more products derived from fluorine, CFC and HCFC 22, are used in refrigeration. Thus the fate of its business depends on sales growth of air-conditioners, aluminium products and the pharma sector.

With the poised growth of the Indian economy all these sectors are likely to do quite well and hence Navin too should do just as well. And to top it all it is supposed to get 2.8 million CERs per annum till 2017. Even at current price of 13 euros and exchange rate of 55 euros per rupee it translates into a revenue of approx Rs 200 crores odd per year. (Check out this link on the UNFCCC website). And if the prices of CERS go up your guess is as good as mine as to the amount of windfall profit that Navin is going to get. 

And the best thing is the very low equity base that it has. Just 1 crore share. So the EPS from just the sale of carbon credits is likely to be about Rs 140 odd post tax. So that makes the current PE at about 2.5 only. And mind you we have not even taken into account the revenues from its business operations. 

And the best thing is that the next tranche of CERs could come very soon and could spike up the share price. 

Happy investing